Betting on Football – home court advantage

It’s no secret that most football teams served at their own game in front of crowds of loyal fans better performance. You know it, I know it. And if we know that we can be sure that bookmakers know it too.

Home court advantage is the foundation on which nearly all offices are starting to build their courses. It is important to understand that the bookmaker is trying to set a course so that the most balanced and achieved the highest turnover. Therefore, does not try to predict how the match goes. Balancing action minimizes the risk bookmaker bookmakers. In industry, this step says “achieve parity”.

Premier League since its inception accommodate 40 different clubs, but only seven have survived highest competition after 16 straight seasons. Through these clubs looking at the home court advantage a little bit closer.

There is a fairly simple formula by which we can calculate the value of the home turf:

home court advantage = (domestic Goals Scored – Home Goals)/number of games played

For example, during the 2007/2008 season he scored Liverpool on home turf, while 43 goals, 13 were received, giving us 30 goals divided by net 19 matches, ie: (43-13)/19 = 1.58.

The table below shows the calculated value of home court advantage with seven teams, of which we mentioned above.

Theory strategy of betting on football tells us that the value in betting on the home team we should find where Asian handicap smaller than their home court advantage. Furthermore, we should find value where Asian handicap for the visiting team exceeds the value of their home court advantage.

There are several other factors that should affect the calculation of home court advantage. These factors would obviously bettor should also be taken into account. Options that can be taken into account are endless, but they would always lead to cash neshrábly bookmakers, but you alone. Here are some tips to make it in the endless parade of lost information:

Domestic fan base: A study in 5000 examining the Premier League in 1992-2006 showed that for every 10,000 match visitors will increase the final outcome rating of 0.1 goals.

Bad news and injury: It is always important to be informed about the latest news team and injuries. It is not uncommon that players get injured even when warming up before the match. Before the game also check the condition of the weather, which can affect primarily the total number of goals that seemed to fit. Conditions that reduce the total number of scoring in a match while reducing the value of home court advantage of each of the teams.

Rivalry and other extended specifications games: Match eternal rivals always attracts more visitors than matches against other teams. This ultimately also home court advantage greatly influences. And at the same time, be sure to advise on any other unique situations and club specifics that would further the intensity of the game to sharpen.

So, you see, because of home court advantage has anyone even ignorant punter opportunity to easily find a convenient course, which will greatly benefit the long term. It just takes a little diligence and perseverance.

Betting on Football – Advanced Betting Strategy

Anyone can visit any online betting and place a bet on your favored football team. The vast majority of soccer betting that individual punters shall, however, based on loyalty to a particular team. Thoughts on the analysis and strategy mostly just missing. And this is wrong.

During the season has blind betting on the favorite team no sense at all. It’s the same as if you planted early in the season, when you do not know in what condition the players are, how they help the new signings etc. If you want to make money by betting on football, you should always think about “value” of their bets. Otherwise you will loss.

The value bet is essentially based on an assessment of what are the chances of winning a single team in comparison with a fixed value of the course, which lists the various bookmakers. So if you think that the team has a value, this is due to the fact that the rewards outweigh the risks bet.

Any result that is greater than 1.00 indicates that the team has value and worth considering bet the more above 1.00 will result, it is more advantageous bet

Now let’s look at one more example in which we take to task a Euro 2012 semi-final between Italy and Germany. Bookmakers believed before the match, winning only one. Therefore favored the Germans had courses around 1.5, while the Italians had courses are often higher than 4.00.

Many inexperienced punters looked at the courses and their money immediately flocked to the Germans. A little more advanced individuals, however, saw the abyss that was the favorite for this. I, too, belongs among them. It’s not that I was convinced that the Germans will not win. But I had a clear idea that this match would be rather indecisive, or that the Germans will have a slight advantage. And this fact certainly did not compensate for very weak exchange rate.

Taking the best course that was listed on Italy in the online bookmaker Bwin, ie 4.75 and If you assign this team eg. 22% success rate, we find this bet value: 0.22 x 4.75 = 1

Estimated percentage success then find very easily. For example, imagine that the two teams play against each other 5 times. How many times do you think Italy will win? On one win would definitely could achieve. Some fans, however, were blinded by the fact that Germany was the only team that has won all three matches in the group, in the quarterfinals sent home in Greece and striker Mario Gomez had a perfect form. Now Germany together with Spain was the case with most bookies destined to lift the trophy and destined to win the game.

However, if we look at the problem from the perspective of the Italian fans, we should take into account the point against Spain, their steady improvement during the group phase, the dominant result against England in the quarterfinals and Andrea Pirlo in top form. It is enough arguments for all opponents.

Experienced punters those factors were assessed in exactly this way, and then everyone came to the conclusion that greater value will also see if you bet on Italy. Italy won.